The session was chaired by Heather Thomson (CEO, The Data Lab), who guided a sharp discussion with an exceptional panel: Stephanie Earp (Head of AI, Space Intelligence), Nic Granger OBE (Chair of the Governance Board, The Data Lab), and Emily Sullivan (Co-director, Centre for Technomoral Futures).

If I had to summarise the mood, it wasn’t about “what new magic will AI do?” but rather, “how do we live, work, and stay safe with what we’ve built?”

Here are my key takeaways from the discussion.

1. The “Boring” Stuff Still Matters Most

One of the strongest themes, particularly championed by Nic Granger, was a return to fundamentals. There is a tangible risk for companies trying to push an “AI Agenda” without having their data house in order first.

We are seeing a move toward Data Sovereignty. There is growing concern regarding reliance on US-based cloud services and tech giants. The panel highlighted the risk of “grabbing off-the-shelf AI”—by doing so, are you handing over your proprietary insights to another company? To maintain a competitive advantage, businesses must integrate agents into their workflows while maintaining strict control over their own data.

2. The Shift from LLMs to SLMs (Small Language Models)

Is the AI bubble about to burst? The panel thinks not, but it is changing shape.

Stephanie Earp made a compelling point: if people are talking about a “burst,” it’s actually a sign of maturity. It means we are realising where AI is not appropriate. The future isn’t just massive Large Language Models (LLMs) that burn through energy; it’s about sustainability and Small Language Models (SLMs).

Stephanie used the example of satellite technology. You cannot run a massive model in orbit; you need energy efficiency and specific utility. The industry is moving toward making the smallest models possible to embed into products, solving specific problems rather than just asking “what can I do with AI?”

3. The Money is Moving: From Climate to Defence

A sobering insight from Stephanie was on the flow of capital. Previously, we saw a massive influx of investment into Climate Tech and Health Tech. However, in the current geopolitical climate, the priority—and the money—is shifting toward Defence and Security. We need to be mindful of which sectors might lose momentum as security takes centre stage.

4. The Human Element: Ethics, Literacy, and the Divide

Emily Sullivan brought the conversation back to the societal impact. We aren’t just dealing with code; we are dealing with people’s likenesses, deepfakes, and the safety of children (referencing the debate on social media bans for under-16s).

A major challenge identified was the Digital Divide. As noted in the discussion, perhaps only 5% of users are “power users,” while 95% use AI tools much like they use Google—surface level and unoptimized.

The solution?

• Education: It’s not just teaching kids how to use AI, but teaching them how not to use it.
• Practical Application: Nic highlighted how tech is making a real difference in social housing, using sensors for mould detection and predictive analytics to help the vulnerable.

5. Regulation is a Global Challenge

Regulation was the elephant in the room. Because AI is global, regulating it locally is incredibly difficult. The panel touched on the “Tech-Power Grab”—the tension between corporate capability and government guardrails.

As we look toward 2026, the challenge will be creating guardrails that prevent data leakage and protect digital identity without stifling the innovation that, as Stephanie noted, gives us “a lot of hope.”

Final Thoughts

When asked for a single word to describe the AI trend for the coming year, the panellists chose:

• Resilience
• Tech-power grab
• Accountability

These three words perfectly encapsulate the crossroads we are at. 2026 won’t just be about better chatbots; it will be about building resilient infrastructure, watching where the power (and money) flows, and holding the technology- and ourselves-accountable for how it is used.

It was a beautifully choreographed confluence of three distinct tracks: power systems, decarbonisation pathways, and innovation; each feeding into one another like well-oiled cogs in a grand net-zero machine. Truly a celebration of systems thinking, which, if you’ve read any of my previous ramblings, is rather close to my heart.

The keynote came courtesy of none other than Chris Stark, Head of Mission Control, whose calm, data-driven presence was both reassuring and slightly intimidating. He reminded us that progress isn’t measured in isolation; it’s about context. For instance, when we look at renewable electricity generation from 2000 to 2025, the UK made impressive strides between 2010 and 2020… only to plateau since then. Meanwhile, China’s growth has been nothing short of exponential across the same period. So, for the UK to catch up and truly join the global clean energy league table? We’ll need more than ambition—we’ll need cost trajectories that match the pace of change. (See attached figure—yes, it’s dramatic, but also very real.)

Chris also touched on the Clean Power Mission and how streamlining the connections process could unlock much-needed capacity. But what really caught my eye was the slide on consumer-led flexibility—a gap of around 8 GW. Now, back-of-the-envelope maths suggests that, if this relies solely on smart EV chargers, we’d need roughly 3 million households onboarded by 2027. That’s about 10% of all UK homes—or nearly every single EV in the country!

I’ll admit, I blinked twice. How on earth are we supposed to do that in under four years? Then I remembered: most new home chargers are already smart. So perhaps it’s not quite as daunting as it first seemed. A small victory for progress, perhaps?

🎤 On Stage: Why Hydrogen Isn’t Just a Technology Problem — It’s a Systems Challenge

In my session, titled “Why Hydrogen isn’t just a technology problem — It’s a systems challenge”, I shared PNDC’s whole-energy systems approach to hydrogen adoption. Let me be clear: it’s not enough to build better electrolysers or fuel cells. The real magic—and the real risk—lies in how these technologies integrate across production, storage, transport, and end-use.

Drawing from hands-on testing of a hydrogen fuel cell truck and analysis of green hydrogen injection into the UK gas grid, we explored how system-level thinking can uncover hidden interdependencies before they become costly failures. Spoiler: de-risking deployment isn’t just technical—it’s systemic.

The talk was warmly received, with several thoughtful follow-up questions (including one asking whether our model could scale to regional grids—yes, but only if we stop treating each sector like a silo!). Honestly, it felt like being part of a conversation rather than a lecture—a rare and lovely thing at conferences!

📸 Conference Snapshots

Other delightful nuggets from the day:

• 🏺 Archaeologists are now essential in nuclear development! Yes, before any site can be commissioned, there must be an archaeological survey. With a shortage of skilled archaeologists, these surveys risk becoming lengthy delays in an industry already known for its… let’s say, leisurely pace.
• 💻 The generational divide in AI perception is fascinating. Younger engineers seem to treat controllers like Xbox remotes—no second glance needed, just press play and trust the robot knows what’s up. It’s both charming and slightly terrifying.
• 🔋 And finally, CIGRE’s definition of resilience hit me right between the eyes: “The ability to limit the extent, severity, and duration of system degradation following an extreme event.”
  Quite poetic, really—like a power grid with emotional intelligence.

And because we’re all about balance here (and because no conference would be complete without a book or podcast recommendation), here are some gems I picked up:

• The Thinking Game (documentary) – described as “a masterclass in how decisions get made at scale” — very compelling indeed.
• The Rest Is Classified (podcast) – called “the hidden stories behind policy and security”, which sounds utterly gripping.
• Beyond the Wall by Katja Hoyer – recommended as “a vivid portrait of East Germany’s quiet revolutions” — already halfway through, and it’s brilliant.

I’ve added all three to my list, and honestly? They’re exactly the kind of content that makes you pause mid-cook, sip your tea slowly, and wonder how we got here—and where we go next.

So, dear reader — if any of these sound familiar, or better yet, if you’ve read them or listened to them already… I’d be absolutely delighted to hear your thoughts! What did you take away? Any others you’d recommend along similar lines?

After all, sharing ideas is half the fun — whether they’re about hydrogen systems or history told through the eyes of a former border guard. 😉

On my current reading list? Halfway through Thriving in a Male-Dominated Workplace (HBR Women at Work Series). It’s insightful, honest, and occasionally infuriating in the best way. Expect a proper blog post on it soon — unless something even more exciting comes along… like, say, a surprise garden gnome invasion. (We’ve had one before.)

So there you have it—a little science, a touch of whimsy, a sprinkle of reality check, and a whole lot of tea.

Thank you for being here. Whether you’re tuning in from a lab bench, your kitchen table, or somewhere between a crocheting session and an audiobook break—I’m so glad we’re sharing this journey together.

Until next time,
Warmest regards,
Priya

I’m still buzzing from an incredible week in Stockholm, where I had the honour of serving as a visiting lecturer at KTH Royal Institute of Technology — a true epicentre of energy research and innovation.

As an R&D Leader at PNDC, my mission was clear: to share insights from real-world energy systems while learning from one of Europe’s most dynamic academic hubs. The week was packed — intense, inspiring, and deeply human.

🎓 Teaching the Foundations: Power Systems in Practice

I delivered a lecture on load flow analysis, contingency analysis, and optimal power flow — core tools for designing resilient, decarbonised grids.

The students were sharp, curious, and eager to connect theory with reality.

“How would this work in a grid with renewables?”
“Can we use this in islanded microgrids?”
“What happens when a line fails during peak demand?”

These weren’t just academic questions — they were the kind of challenges we face daily at PNDC. It was a powerful reminder: the future of energy is being shaped in classrooms, just as much as in labs and boardrooms.

💻 The Great Python Puzzle: When Versions Don’t Play Nice

We moved into a hands-on tutorial using pandapower, a Python library for power system analysis.

Now, here’s the twist: I’ve been using Python for years — but I’m not a coder by trade. I’ve kept my environment stable with older, tested versions.

But the students? Most were installing Python for the first time — and the latest version had broken compatibility with pandapower.

😱 Spoiler: It didn’t work.

We spent the night before the tutorial troubleshooting — trying different versions, virtual environments, and pip installs. The confusion was real. But the lesson was golden: version control is non-negotiable in applied research.

📌 Action Plan for Next Year:
We’ll provide a pre-configured virtual environment with exact versions of Python, pandas, and pandapower — along with a step-by-step setup guide. No more midnight debugging!

🔥 Inside the Labs: Where Sand, Solar, and Heat Meet

The real highlight? A tour of KTH’s High-Temperature and Low-Temperature Labs — two worlds of thermal innovation under one roof.

🔥 High-Temp Lab: Sand as a Supercharged Heat Carrier

• 700°C experiments using sand as a fluid medium to transfer heat from concentrated solar power (CSP) plants to steam generators.
• Fascinating detail: The diameter of pipe ends controls sand velocity — a simple, elegant way to manage flow and efficiency.
• Pyrolysis in molten chloride salts at 400°C — exploring ways to recycle PV panels and plastics at scale. A major step toward circular energy systems.
• High-temperature heat pumps (200–400°C) — pushing the limits of industrial decarbonisation.

❄️ Low-Temp Lab: “High” Temperature at 65°C?

• Here, “high temperature” means 65°C — a gentle reminder: context matters, even within a single department.
• Systems designed for district heating, building efficiency, and integration with renewables.

🌐 Beyond the Lab: Co-Creating the CETP Vision

Amidst lectures and lab tours, Jagruti and I also worked on shaping the broad objectives of the CETP (Centre for Energy Transition Partnership) — a large, multi-country consortium tackling real industry challenges.

It was intense. We worked late — Monday to Thursday, often past midnight — refining, aligning, and finding common threads across diverse partners.

There’s something deeply nostalgic about working late in a university building. It reminded me of my days at IIT Bombay, when I’d stay up until 2 a.m. finishing my thesis.

Coming out of the lab at midnight, lights still on, people laughing over coffee — it wasn’t lonely. It was alive.

(P.S. This isn’t KTH. I still haven’t taken a photo of KTH at midnight — but I promise: next year, I will.)

🚶‍♀️ Bonus: 15,000 Steps a Day in Stockholm

And yes — I did walk 15,000 steps every single day. Stockholm is a city built for walking: green spaces, canals, bridges, and a rhythm that invites exploration.

I didn’t just walk — I felt the city. The crisp air, the quiet hum of the metro, the way sunlight danced on the water.

It was a perfect blend of professional rigour and personal renewal.

✨ Final Thought

This wasn’t just a visiting lecture — it was a conversation across continents, disciplines, and cultures.

I came to teach. I left with new ideas, new connections, and a deeper belief in what’s possible when academia, industry, and passion collide.

And as I packed my bags, I carried with me not just notes and photos — but a renewed spark.

Next up in the series: Part 2 – The Golden Hall, the City Tower, and the Nail Scissors of Herta Müller
Coming soon: A journey through Stockholm’s cultural soul — where science meets art, and history whispers through every corridor.

🎥 1. Electrolyser Horizons: Reshaping Hydrogen Strategy Across the UK

The week began with the closeout meeting for the Electrolyser Horizons project, hosted at the impressive Fife Renewables Innovation Centre. A great venue — but sunlit seas and the anglers outside made it clear that this wasn’t your average office environment! Thanks, Anna Morris and Cameron Mitchell, for hosting us at FRIC.

The project — a collaboration between SGN, University of Surrey, University of St Andrews, University of Strathclyde (PNDC, and the Centre for Energy Policy) — has been focused on creating a national techno-economic evaluation framework for electrolytic hydrogen production.

I’ll be sharing a full summary soon — but the key takeaway for now: proper infrastructure planning + local knowledge = a cleaner, scalable future.

🚨 2. H100 Fife: A Hydrogen Powerhouse in Plain Sight

Just hours later, we got a front-row seat to the H100 Fife site — a world-first hydrogen gas network delivering zero-carbon heat to 300 homes. The technology includes a hydrogen production facility, offshore wind power, and hydrogen-ready boilers and hobs.

James Carroll and Joshua Ayobami shared fascinating insights into the site’s evolution, from coal mining to an oil rig logistics base and now as a beacon of renewable transition. Their storytelling gave us more than just technical details—they gave context that made the hydrogen fire warm.

🍳 3. Pancakes, Hydrogen Showdown, and Colours of Flame

The highlight? Susan Day flipped a perfectly golden pancake using a hydrogen-powered hob. As she quipped: “No difference here!” — referring to how similar the cooking and heat was to natural gas. A simple but powerful moment.

And here’s a science note: Yes, the hydrogen flame was orange, not invisible. Turns out, imperfections in the fuel and surroundings can change the flame colour. It’s a lesson in both chemistry and communication — hydrogen doesn’t always behave as textbook diagrams say it does, and our expectations should evolve with each demo.

🤝 4. Reconnection at All-Energy — Timing Truly is Everything

And just like that, the week ended with a welcome reunion. I had the chance to reconnect with Johana Duran Santos, a key collaborator at all stages of the project.

We missed you in the closeout meeting, Johana — but better late than never!

🌞 Final Thoughts

The week was a vivid reminder that hydrogen is more than a fuel — it’s a bridge between past, present, and future. In Fife, you can almost feel the history in the air. And if we learned anything from Susan’s pancake demo, it’s that hydrogen is not only ready for real-world use — it’s ready for the kitchen too!

Stay tuned for more insights and stories on research, random books, gardening and others. Have a tale of your own where energy and community collide? Please share below.

Hi there, energy systems enthusiasts and craft lovers and gardeners alike!

As someone who splits her time between accelerating clean energy tech and scribbling patterns on greeting cards or gardening, I’m always curious about how diverse thinking shows up in different worlds. While recently listening to Matthew Syed’s “Rebel Ideas: The Power of Diverse Thinking” on audiobook, I found myself drawing parallels to my work at PNDC, where decarbonising energy systems requires more than just technical expertise—it demands radically inclusive collaboration. Here are my takeaways and how they resonate with both my professional and creative life.

1. Real-Life Examples = Real-World Impact

Syed’s story about people hesitating to speak up even in life-threatening situations struck me hard. At first glance, it seems absurd—“Why wouldn’t anyone demand help?”—but the book unpacks how cultural norms and structural hierarchies can silence voices. In my work leading hydrogen projects, I’ve witnessed this. For instance, during a brainstorming session on grid integration challenges, a junior researcher tentatively suggested an idea that ultimately prevented a flawed design. The courage to voice concerns, even respectfully, turned a potential setback into progress. Syed reminds me that growth thrives in environments where dissent is welcome. But let’s also remember that not everything requires a dissent or is a war. We must learn to pick our battles, focusing energy on ideas that truly reshape our direction.

2. HiPPOs and the Art of Letting Go of “Seniority”

One line that made me smile: “HiPPOs rule the room.” For those hearing HiPPOs for the first time, it stands for ‘Highest Paid Individual’s Opinion’. Don’t we all know a person whose rank determines the room’s focus? In many organisations I’ve worked with, the loudest opinions often belong to those with the highest paychecks—yet the most innovative solutions often come from listening deeply, not speaking over others. In our R&D team meetings, I’ve started asking colleagues to pause debates and reframe conversations: “Let’s not argue who has the ‘best’ idea, or which is the best idea, but rather explore how cross-functional teams can combine insights.” This shift in dynamics not only democratizes innovation but also taps into the wisdom of the crowd, which, ironically, often validates the best ideas anyway!

3. “Bring Me a Solution” vs “Let’s Solve It Together”

“Don’t come to me with a problem, bring me a solution!” That’s a mantra many professionals learn early on. But Syed pushes back: skipping the problem stage misses the boat on diverse thinking. Early in my career, I fell into that trap, crafting “polished proposals”. Now, I advocate for collaborative problem-solving in our projects. For example, our recent heat decarbonization advisory group involved open forums where stakeholders— engineers from different disciplines, policy and social scientists—started with questions rather than answers. The resulting plans were more robust simply because we started the mental sprint together.

4. Rebels > Clones: Why “Very Different” Outperforms “Very Similar”

This chapter hit home. Syed argues that successful advisory groups aren’t just diverse in age, gender, or background—they’re diverse in expertise. Think about it: how many energy panels consist only of energy insiders? Not great! At a recent Ofgem webinar introducing their Strategic Innovation Fund Round 5 challenges around consumer-centric innovation, I was blown away by a presentation from a water company that had hosted water-themed innovation festivals for eight years. Their structured approach to ideation, MVPs, and collaboration was worlds away from traditional energy-sector methods—and yet, their cross-industry perspective revealed fresh strategies for tackling grid scalability issues. This is the magic of “rebels,” not “clones.”

5. Ideas Flourish in Open Spaces

Syed’s line about “birds of the same stock” reminded me of my own tendencies. As an electrical engineering grad, I’ve always defaulted to electrical conferences. But earlier this year, I was invited to present at a mechanical engineering symposium. The resulting conversations—about material sciences, nuclear reactor designs, even industrial cooling systems—unexpectedly inspired a modular energy storage idea for rural electrification in our portfolio. Socializing ideas across disciplines doesn’t just break silos; it reveals new pathways we couldn’t see in our own “flock.”

Side note: Socialising ideas takes effort. Like trying a new cuisine while I’m used to Indian. But the reward is worth it!

6. Averages Are Lousy Guides for Individuality

This chapter on personalised diets had a surprising edge—yes, even though a delegate from a precision health startup in the audiobook audience made it seem a bit sceptical for me! The pushback against one-size-fits-all solutions mirrors my work in energy. For example, heat decarbonisation isn’t viable with a single technology in every school or hospital. Just as we need tailored diets for diabetes management, we need localised, adaptive solutions for buildings, which have wildly different energy profiles. Syed’s point is simple: data and policy mustn’t homogenise people’s needs into averages.

Personal resonance: My switch to audiobooks was also about seeking personalised engagement. How many more books could I devour by listening to stories while kneading dough or tending the garden?

Putting Rebel Thinking to Work

For me, “Rebel Ideas” is a call to build environments where comfort zones feel like crutches and new perspectives feel like superpowers. Here’s how I apply it:

• Create “safe spaces” for late-stage challenges to technical plans.
• Invite non-energy experts to energy conversations (less obvious, more powerful).
• Start collaborations with questions, not solutions—then iterate with the crowd.
• Design solutions for individuals, not abstractions.

Final Thought:

In a world obsessed with efficiency and carbon neutrality, perhaps the most radical act we can take is to listen to outliers—whether they’re lovely rebels from other fields or quietly rebellious minds in the room. Progress isn’t a solo effort, but a collective glow. In both innovation and everyday creativity, diversity isn’t an accessory—it’s the fuel. So, what will be your next rebel idea?

Stay curious, stay rebellious, and let’s grow those brains together, one diverse conversation at a time!

This week’s post is a day delayed because I was participating in the IMechE event, Decarbonise, Power, Store. The event brought together three key themes—decarbonization, power generation, and energy storage—under one roof, fostering a rich exchange of ideas. It was a highly informative day, and I was honoured to be a panellist in the session on the challenges of operations versus maintenance in diversifying power.

Keynote and Sessions

The event kicked off with a keynote from Peter Bingham, Director of Engineering and Technology at Ofgem. He discussed the critical role of regulation and policy in shaping the future energy system. The power plant operations and flexibility track featured several insightful presentations:

• Julian Leslie, Director of Strategic Energy Planning and Chief Engineer at NESO, spoke about NESO’s role in advancing thermal power and grid flexibility.
• Philip Gardiner from Axiom discussed the repurposing of pressure equipment for hydrogen service.
• Simon Forshaw, VP Engineering and Construction at Enfinium, shared insights on energy from waste.
• James Harman-Thomas, Gas Turbine Combustion Engineer at Uniper, talked about the use of hydrotreated vegetable oil as a low-carbon fuel for gas turbines.

Panel Discussion

My panel, chaired by Graham Sorbie, included fellow panellists Griff Tilley and Matthew Vas. We delved into the challenges and opportunities in diversifying power operations and maintenance.

Here are some key takeaways from the event:

1. Innovation and Deployment:
   • There’s a wealth of innovation being funded by Ofgem and various network operators. However, it’s frustrating that many of these innovations do not make it to deployment. Ofgem’s new SIF (Strategic Innovation Fund) scheme aims to address this by encouraging the adoption of innovations into regular business practices. Hopefully, this will make a significant difference.
2. Maximising Existing Networks:
   • There are numerous opportunities to optimise the existing energy infrastructure while waiting for major upgrades. Smart control systems, dynamic line ratings, and power flow optimisation can all play a crucial role in enhancing efficiency and reliability.
3. Skilled Labour and Knowledge Transfer:
   • There is a pressing need for better planning to ensure a steady supply of skilled labour in the future. Robust succession planning and effective knowledge transfer between experienced and new professionals are essential. AI and large language models (LLMs) could be valuable tools, provided that comprehensive documentation exists.

Questions for Further Thought

1. Energy from Waste: Can we consider energy from waste as a form of negative emissions? What are the environmental and economic implications?
2. Physics-Based AI Models: Could physics-based AI models increase engineers’ confidence in using advanced technologies for day-to-day operations? How can we ensure these models are reliable and user-friendly?
3. Domestic Flexibility and Consumer Savings: While 3 million people have subscribed to a new trial by Octopus Energy, this represents only about 10% of total consumers. How can we ensure that the benefits of domestic flexibility are accessible to all, including those who may not be as tech-savvy?

Personal Reflection

Being part of this event reinforced my belief in the importance of cross-disciplinary collaboration. The challenges we face in decarbonising the energy sector are complex, and solutions will require input from various stakeholders. It was inspiring to see so much innovation and forward-thinking, and I am optimistic about the future.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on these topics. Have you encountered similar challenges or innovations in your work? What do you think about the role of AI and consumer engagement in achieving a sustainable energy future?

Online Interactive Tool

The UK has a net zero target by 2050, as enshrined in law, and with transport being the largest emitting sector, accelerating electric vehicle (EV) uptake is fundamental to reaching that target. Luckily, the adoption of new technologies is rarely linear; instead, has been shown to follow an S-curve as uptake moves from tech-savvy to mainstream. As part of the Park and Charge Oxfordshire research project, we undertook an S-curve analysis to understand the potential trajectories (see Enabling the Acceleration of Electric Vehicle Adoption (Policy Brief 1, February 2022)).

After a long hiatus from EV uptake analysis, we recently ventured to re-run the s-curve analysis (initially published in December 2021). Unsurprisingly, the data formats and granularity have changed since then. Although this meant an entire rejig of the code, the higher geographical granularity across the datasets meant more regional insights than before. The primary data file includes the cumulative number of electric vehicles and all vehicles by counties from 2010 through Quarter 4, 2023, from the UK Government’s Department for Transport (VEH0105.ods). It was processed using Python. 

The figure below shows the cumulative EV uptake forecasts for England, Scotland and Wales. As can be seen, EV growth forecasts for Scotland and England are quite similar and the vehicle fleet is on target to be nearly 100% electric by 2045. However, Wales is lagging by almost 8 years.

As our initial interest was in Oxfordshire, we plotted the forecasts for England and Oxfordshire, which are also incredibly similar. Then we took advantage of the higher geographic granularity now available to look further within Oxfordshire. We plotted the five district councils (Oxford City Council, Cherwell, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, and West Oxfordshire). Though initial uptake was slower, Cherwell has picked up the pace in the last 5 years and is leading the way in achieving all EV status sooner than the rest of the districts in the county.

On the other hand, this analysis tells us little about why uptake is faster or slower in different places. We know from other research that commercial fleets and company car schemes are dominating the new EV market in the UK. Cherwell has the highest economic activity rate and the second highest number of jobs in Oxfordshire after Oxford City, where major employers like the University tend to promote non-car commuting. Could this be why they also have higher EV adoption rates?

The S-curve analysis also does not account for external events or national policy changes – until any changes in adoption rates enter historic data.

As can be seen below, when we first started this research in 2019, the time until full adoption was much longer. Then the pandemic and energy crises hit, and the UK government set a 2030 target to end sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and vans.

There has also been substantial investment from the Government and industry in public and private EV charging. Has this pulled the S-curves forward in time, as well as making the exponential growth phase steeper? And what impact has the subsequent push-back of targets and mixed messages had since late 2023? We don’t yet have the data to be able to see any more recent changes in our S-curve analysis.

With the political landscape in the UK altering overnight and the 2030 phase-out date for ICE vehicles potentially back in the frame, the mixed messages may have little to no impact. However, with car dealers reporting that EV sales are still below the Zero Emissions Mandate target, we think our S-curve analysis could help the government in Westminster, local authorities, and industry see where there is still work to do to get adoption on track across the country. Have a look at our online tool for your area of interest and see if you agree!

What do you think? We would welcome questions and comments on the applications of S-curve analysis to EV adoption in the UK, on the influence of different geodemographics or policy changes, and thoughts about avenues for further research. Please respond to this post here or on the cross-post on LinkedIn.